This is an economic, financial, and business forecasting blog.
I believe that long-term economic business cycles exist. Better understanding of those economic cycles leads to a better understanding of past and future trends in society and in how nations emerge, mature, and eventually lose their stature.
The choice of our name arises from our prediction of when the next inflationary bust will take place–the year 2035. The last inflationary bust took place in 1979-80, for the record.
From a big-picture perspective, I predict that the inflationary period from 1946-1980 will form as a basis for comparison with the inflationary period that will one-day be described from 2001-2035.
Only time will tell.
Some entries may not have an obvious “economic bent”, but I would argue that societal trends and push-pull reactions oftentimes have an economic causation. I would argue that Individual decisions made by each person, over the scope of large populations, are primarily driven by economic factors.
Tex:
Looks like you were about 27 years late with the crash prediction.
Posted on January 20th, 2009 at 11:11 am
Mr. Contrarian:
Au contraire, my friend. If you think this is “the crash” you obviously haven’t lived through a real crash. What we are seeing now is a mere correction. Have you ever lived through 23% interest rates on your mortgage? Have you ever lived through 14-16% rates of inflation? Any good technical analyst worth his salt will know that there are oftentimes, “three legs up, three legs down”. Interest rates bottomed in 2001-02, and based on years of independent research, I stand by my prediction of a ultimate inflationary peak in 2035. Based on “three legs up”, history may treat the period from 2001-2010/11 as the “first leg up”. Only time will tell, but comparison of economic statistics from the 1979-81 crash will plainly show that what we are now experiencing is a tea party, and not a crash. 2035crash.com was not named on a passing whim.
Posted on January 20th, 2009 at 9:27 pm
Tex:
Do you think the financial markets are in the worst shape since The Great Depression?
The 1970’s high mortgage/interest rates were temporary. I didn’t have a mortgage at that time. Nobody who had a mortgage during that time has the same, high interest rate, unless they’re stupid.
Have you read Robert Kiyosaki’s “Prophesy” book? He predicts lots of economic problems between 2012 and 2020.
What is the basis for your 2035 prediction?
I think many events can impact these types of predictions, not that you shouldn’t think about what may happen.
Posted on January 21st, 2009 at 12:29 pm